A little more than mid-way through the season for the IPL 3, but let’s look at how things are so far. First, the basics.
A : Basic Looks
Let’s have a look at the form guide so far
1. MI is the form team with the most consistent performances. They don’t have a trend of losing so far. Delhi is putting up an impressive string of late.
2. KKR has been a blow hot, blow cold sort of team of late. RCB’s getting into that mold too. They have to settle on a team combination.
B: Intermediate Observations
Let’s look at the top 4 in different categories
1. Economy Rate – runs conceded per over
2. Bowling Strike Average – Number of overs bowled per wicket
3. Batting Average: Total Team score per game
4. Batting Strike Rate : Team strike rate average
1. The proud colours of Mumbai and Delhi are seen in all 4 categories! No wonder these 2 teams are in the top 4 (1 and 2).
2. Chennai and Rajasthan next best with presence in 2 categories. Which explains why they seem to be running in contention too!
3. Bangalore’s is a strange case , with the presence only in 1 category , the Economy Rate, and yet they sit pretty at Number 2! This can lead to us assuming 1 of 2 things. The economy rate is one of the more important factors in this format (and thus , bowling). Or 2, their lack of presence has been a function of the indifferent form they are in of late ( related to conclusion A2)!
C: Deeper Investigation – Batting
I did a comparison between Mumbai Indians , Delhi Daredevils, the front runners, and KXP and DC (the wooden spoon warriors ), but looked at averages.
1. Average 1 : Team Average of the top 7-8 batsmen
2. Average 2: Average of Top 4 Batsmen of the respective team AFTER their top score has been subtracted from the total
1. If you look at Average 1 – which is the standard average – all the 4 teams have similar averages (Delhi’s is inflated because of Collingwood’s abnormal performance lifting the average). In fact, KXP , the last team has a better average than Mumbai! Strange, isn’t it?
2. I took Average 2 (explained above) as an indicator, and this reveals a nice insight. Each of the top 4 batsmen of Mumbai score 10 more runs on average than the top 4 of KXP and about 5 more than DC!
Consider this: Even if we take 2 of them , MI might score 20 runs more than KXP, and 10 more than DC! KXP is more likely to lose the game, and DC involved in a close one because of these simple numbers!
3. I took the number Average 2 because the Highest score often tends to inflate an average. If we are looking for consistency, I believe that we need to remove the outliers and get the trend that way, instead of adding the Highest score! Highest scores or range should come in probabilities.
I’m sure a bowling analysis on the same will reveal similar insights!
1. MI and DD are the most consistent teams for a reason , their top 4 batsmen who are responsible for scoring the most runs have the highest Average 2 parameters. This means consistency – a run – and a string of performances.
2. T20 is very much a game of impact too. Which is why a Yusuf Pathan special or a Warnie spell can turn things around. But if you remove those, you get a true indicator of team performance in general.
3. Now, teams with consistency are Mumbai and Delhi. Teams trying to put it together are Chennai ,Rajasthan, Bangalore.
4. Addition of some instant impact players and consistency players will add to the above teams – Chennai will benefit from Bollinger and Hussey , and Bangalore from Ross Taylor and Pieterson.
5. This is why it might be difficult for KXP , DCto play catch-up now, because the 3 teams in point (4) are also on the upswing , except Bangalore, who of late are stuttering.