A little more than mid-way through the season for the IPL 3, but let’s look at how things are so far. First, the basics.
A : Basic Looks
Let’s have a look at the form guide so far
Form Guide : Post Mid Season IPL 3 (MTJAG)
Pointless Conclusions:
1. MI is the form team with the most consistent performances. They don’t have a trend of losing so far. Delhi is putting up an impressive string of late.
2. KKR has been a blow hot, blow cold sort of team of late. RCB’s getting into that mold too. They have to settle on a team combination.
B: Intermediate Observations
Let’s look at the top 4 in different categories
Top 4 By Category
Keys
1. Economy Rate – runs conceded per over
2. Bowling Strike Average – Number of overs bowled per wicket
3. Batting Average: Total Team score per game
4. Batting Strike Rate : Team strike rate average
Pointless Conclusions
1. The proud colours of Mumbai and Delhi are seen in all 4 categories! No wonder these 2 teams are in the top 4 (1 and 2).
2. Chennai and Rajasthan next best with presence in 2 categories. Which explains why they seem to be running in contention too!
3. Bangalore’s is a strange case , with the presence only in 1 category , the Economy Rate, and yet they sit pretty at Number 2! This can lead to us assuming 1 of 2 things. The economy rate is one of the more important factors in this format (and thus , bowling). Or 2, their lack of presence has been a function of the indifferent form they are in of late ( related to conclusion A2)!
C: Deeper Investigation – Batting
I did a comparison between Mumbai Indians , Delhi Daredevils, the front runners, and KXP and DC (the wooden spoon warriors ), but looked at averages.
Batting Averages (MTJAG)
Key :
1. Average 1 : Team Average of the top 7-8 batsmen
2. Average 2: Average of Top 4 Batsmen of the respective team AFTER their top score has been subtracted from the total
Pointless Conclusions
1. If you look at Average 1 – which is the standard average – all the 4 teams have similar averages (Delhi’s is inflated because of Collingwood’s abnormal performance lifting the average). In fact, KXP , the last team has a better average than Mumbai! Strange, isn’t it?
2. I took Average 2 (explained above) as an indicator, and this reveals a nice insight. Each of the top 4 batsmen of Mumbai score 10 more runs on average than the top 4 of KXP and about 5 more than DC!
Consider this: Even if we take 2 of them , MI might score 20 runs more than KXP, and 10 more than DC! KXP is more likely to lose the game, and DC involved in a close one because of these simple numbers!
3. I took the number Average 2 because the Highest score often tends to inflate an average. If we are looking for consistency, I believe that we need to remove the outliers and get the trend that way, instead of adding the Highest score! Highest scores or range should come in probabilities.
I’m sure a bowling analysis on the same will reveal similar insights!
Final Conclusions
1. MI and DD are the most consistent teams for a reason , their top 4 batsmen who are responsible for scoring the most runs have the highest Average 2 parameters. This means consistency – a run – and a string of performances.
2. T20 is very much a game of impact too. Which is why a Yusuf Pathan special or a Warnie spell can turn things around. But if you remove those, you get a true indicator of team performance in general.
3. Now, teams with consistency are Mumbai and Delhi. Teams trying to put it together are Chennai ,Rajasthan, Bangalore.
4. Addition of some instant impact players and consistency players will add to the above teams - Chennai will benefit from Bollinger and Hussey , and Bangalore from Ross Taylor and Pieterson.
5. This is why it might be difficult for KXP , DCto play catch-up now, because the 3 teams in point (4) are also on the upswing , except Bangalore, who of late are stuttering.
mi, dd,csk rcb should be the top 4
but if csk end up losing today…
then rr are more likely, right?.. or is it kkr?
man, the 3rd and 4th place are still open now!
Posted by Prafs | April 6, 2010, 3:32 pmPrafs,
Here’s how I see it. MI and DD have made excellent use of their rhythm , putting up a good string of wins together. This gives them less ground to cover and a couple of individual performances can push them over the hilt.
Now, coming to the next gang,I’d believe that CSK and RR ,RCB and KKR are fighting for 2 spots. Taking it a little further:
1. All teams are going to benefit from 2-3 impact players addition at this stage : CSK with Bollinger and Hussey , RR with Watson, RCB with Taylor, Pieterson and KKR with Brendon.
2. Now since all 4 teams have equal advantage , I believe that the ones with more consistency will benefit from it. RR/CSK/RCB have a slight edge on KKR on consistency.
3. Now between RR , CSK and RCB, it’s very tight but an important thing to note is that CSK and RR are having a good run NOW, unlike RCB who had an excellent start , but they are struggling.
4.The team that has to be most worried is the no.3 team right now- Bangalore! If they don’t find a way to get back on track, I think CSK, RR will trump them.
Posted by MTJAG | April 6, 2010, 4:11 pmhi,
MI and DD looks certain to progress to the next round. As i mentioned previsouly in ur post, RCB is having problem with their back ups. So it is now even more critical for them to continue with their existing squad to get into SF. Fortunately they have few home games and so they can be expected to reach SF. If it is between CSK and RR, it can be anyone. You cannot guess who will bite the dust. KKR has a very little chance to progress to SF.
Regarding momentum, have you noticed that out of last 4 wins 3 are home games for DD. In all of them they won the toss and batted first in a very slow pitch.So far only CSK won chasing in Delhi. It remains to be seen when they lose a toss and chase.
The same case is with MI, so far except one or two games all were home matches. They also have to travel to other cities and prove their invincibility. I have a fear that they are going to choke in SF. They havent tested their bench strengh yet and looks like it may come to bite them back.
KXIP and DC are going to spoil some teams opportunity.
Team H A
MI 1 5
DD 2 3
RCB 3 2
RR 3 1
CSK 3 2
KKR 3 2
From the above RR has the best fixtures ahead with 3 home games. They will revel in their slow pithces. MI has their task cut out for their remaining campaign. CSK home game can go either way with a road of a pitch. RCB has lost only 1 home game out of 4 and may consider favourites.
So my final four are
MI, DD, RCB, RR.
Let us see.
Posted by kanda | April 6, 2010, 5:58 pmKandaman,
Some great points you threw out there with the H/A info and data. I like your picks and the reasoning behind them, and the fear I have with MI is that they might have peaked already. Let’s see. At the SF stage onwards, there are no favourites, that’s for sure.
A very interesting game today -Mumbai vs Chennai!
Posted by MTJAG | April 6, 2010, 6:09 pmOnce again excellent analysis.
Seriously, following your blog is better than following the official IPLT20 site or any other “expert” site with a lot of nonsense from ex-cricketers and journalists.
Posted by Rayden | April 6, 2010, 7:11 pmRayden,
Thank you for the kind words sir! Flattering
Posted by MTJAG | April 6, 2010, 7:42 pm